Sunday, 11 May 2014

Opinion Polls South India Aggregate
















The Opinion Polls in the South region is the most fractured. If this were a country then no government wold be possibly formed. The congress led UPA and the NDA are getting 30 seats each, while the AIADMK, the DMK, the Left, the TRS and the YSRCP are getting sizable numbers too.


TN AP Kar Kerala Total
NDA 4 14 12 30
UPA 9 12 9 30
AIDMK 20 20
DMK 15 15
YSRC 10 10
TRS 7 7
Left 1 1 11 13
JDS 3 3
AAP 1 1
Others 1 1
40 42 28 20 130

The overall India picture now clearly emerges with the following arithmetic: 

North West East South Total
NDA 75 86 42 30 233
UPA 25 27 35 30 117
AAP 12 2 0 1 15
SP 20 20
BSP 17 1 18
Left 21 13 34
TMC 20 20
JDU 7 7
BJD 13 13
DMK 15 15
YSRC 10 10
JDS 3 3
TRS 7 7
AIDMK 20 20
Others 2 5 1 8
This result is as fractured as it could be. With this, a government formation is not possible. A minority NDA government with 25 parties supported by Jaya and Mamata would be a disaster. A Third front government with Congress support would be even more disastrous. Both are possible though...

The erstwhile pre poll 3rd front in this formation will have close to 140 seats. Even with entire UPA throwing its weight behind, the 272 number looks a distant dream. This can also be a minority government running for a year or at most two years. 

As per this opinion poll, expect another election in 2016.

Saturday, 10 May 2014

Opinion Polls - Andhra Pradesh 2014 General Elections


Another fascinating story of the elections 2014, and probably the most, is that of AP. Just by dividing the state in two parts, something the Congress has promised in its 2009 manifesto, led to emergence of two new parties which are going to possibly form two new governments in June. At least that's what the opinion polls for the state assemblies in Telengana and Seemandhra are showing. This means the Congress is going to loose its backyard to its fierce loyalist's son - Jagan Reddy. It seems in the last decade or so, all decisions of the party - whether not agreeing to Telengana separation first post 2004, then not allowing Jagan to be the CM after his father's death and finally the bifurcation itself - everything has proved costly to the Congress party. Even its last CM in power Kiran Reddy has decided to form another party and is fighting hard in some parts of Rayalseema. 

Chandrababu Naidu, on the other hand, is waiting desperately to govern half the state he once presided like a CEO from Hyderabad. Its partner the BJP is all preparing to carry on the partnership for some time as they need the required number of MPs from the state. The BJP is happy to play a second fiddle in Seemandhra and is possibly going to lose whatever support base it has in Telengana too. The TRS would be glad to form the next government in Telengana, with or without the support of Congress. All it wants now is to get the reigns of the newly formed state. The left with its some pockets of influence in Khammam and Nalgonda would want to ally with either the Congress or the TRS in Telengana. In Seemandhra, they would probably need to do a lot of rethink of their strategy regarding consolidating in elections. The expected results would be:

TELENGANA (17):
TRS: 7
Congress: 8
MIM: 1
CPI: 1

SEEMANDHRA (25):
Congress: 0
YSRCP: 10
TDP: 13
BJP: 1
JSAP: 1

Sunday, 4 May 2014

Opinion Polls - Tamil Nadu 2014 General Elections


Tamil Nadu is a story of opportunity lost for Jayalalitha. The AIADMK alliance along with the left across opinion polls was getting 33-35 seats out of the 40 of TN + Pondicherry. This party was ended by Mrs Jayalalitha herself by pulling herself out of the alliance. The reasons they say are many. One, Jayalalitha is prone to flaws in self evaluation and typically over estimates her strength mostly due to flattery of close confidantes. Two, in her measurement the Third front stood little chance of forming a government vis-a-vis the NDA under Modi and under pressure from her right wing advisories took the course. But f any one gained from her decision is the wily old man - Karunanidhi. Left all alone with BJP having its own alliance and the Left and Congress deciding to go alone too with full force, the AIADMK was locked in a first time ever 4-5 way contest in most of the constituencies. The Congress, Left, the AAP even though have  a bleak chance of winning any seat, would possibly cut into the major parties vote in heavy doses in their own areas of influence. The NDA with 6 party alliance headed by BJP would definitely be able to convert their high vote share into some seats in the state. But when it comes to seats, the AIADMK and the DMK would split the seats among themselves, but not like how it was being projected. Having ditched the left harmed her in more than one way - now she was no longer the PM candidate of the third front and the the entire opposition from the right to the left was only raising their voice against her government day and night. 

The opinion polls too are now changing their loyalty. From a high of 30 seats, AIADMK seems to have come down to 21-22 in most. The DMK has a chance of increasing its tally from 5(initial estimates) to even 15 seats here. the NDA would get a lot of votes but as per opinion polls is getting 4-6 seats. Basis these estimates, we would like to jump straight to our opinion polls forecast:

AIADMK: 20
DMK: 15
NDA: 4
Congress: 0
AAP:0
Left:1

Thursday, 1 May 2014

Opinion Polls - Kerala 2014 general elections

This has been one state that's been a real pollster nightmare. So much so that forget opinion polls, even the exit polls typically has very little sanctity. This is because of the fact that even very small swings of 1% have made one of the two coalitions win or loose and this has been going on for the past 30 years now.

The ruling coalition - UDF faces a stiff anti-incumbency and the opposition LDF is plagued with infighting. That makes the contest even. In the last assembly elections in 2011, the UDF had come to power with some wafer thin margins and the LDF under the stewardship of VS Achhutanandan had very steadfastly assuaged much of the anti-incumbency coming its way. Similarly the Oomen Chandy government has now with deft handling of certain issues made sure that the ruling party's dominance in certain parts would continue. The LDF on the other hand has placed 5 ex-congress men as its candidates in Congress strongholds and also made sure a good representation of Christians - a traditional vote base of Congress here, to dent into a good number of UDF votes. LDF on the other hand lost its key ally, the RSP to UDF and that may impact its results in a couple of seats here.

The BJP has tried its best to increase its vote share to its ever highest, but the factionalism within its ranks is going to cost them very severely. The party is not going to get more than 8% votes here - denting the Congress vote base a little in some constituencies like Trivandrum. The Aap is going to be a strong effect in some seats like Cochin and Trivandrum and is mostly going to impact the Left votes. 

Overall, considering these scenarios we would go by what the latest NDTV opinion polls suggest here (not many channels and polls cover Kerala as much). 
The vote share of LDF is going to increase from 39% to 42% and the UDF is going to reduce from 48% to 45%. As a result, the final seat tally would be:

UPA: 9
Left:11

Opinion Polls - Karnataka General Elections 2014

In the 2008 elections, the BJP got a vote share of 33.86 per cent and won 110 seats, improving upon its earlier tally of 28.33 per cent votes and 79 seats. The Congress was marginally ahead of BJP in terms of vote share with 34.76 per cent — a decline from 35.27 per cent in 2004. JD(S) fell from 20.77 to18.96 per cent. Riding on this assembly win of 2008, the BJP got a 42% vote share in 2009 and 19 of the 28 seats. The Congress won 6 and the JD(S) won 3. Last year, the Congress won a comeback 122 seats, up from 80 in 2008, by adding just 1.6 percentage points to its 2008 vote share. On the other hand, the BJP crashed both in seats (40 from 110 in 2008) and vote share (20.07 from 33.93 percent in 2008). The BJP lost its deposit on 110 seats; the Congress on 23.

As for BSY's Karnataka Jantha Paksha (KJP), the claim that it wrecked the BJP is a myth. Analysts cite its average vote share of 10.82 percent on the 204 of the state's 224 seats it contested to back that claim. But that figure was skewed by shares of 50.76, 49.89, 44.89, 43.21, 39.57 and 32.11 percents that the KJP notched up on the six seats it won. The KJP placed second on 33 assembly seats. But even there BSY's return won't help. Those assembly seats are spread over 13 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP had won 10 in 2009. At best it can retain them with BSY's return but even that would be hard given the BJP's overall declining fortunes.

So even if BJP gains the entire KJP vote back in 2014 and gets some additional 3% due to gains in North Karnataka because of Narendra Modi, the vote share is going to be 33%. The JDS here had in the assembly elections increased its vote share to 20% and is expected to retain the same in 2009. The congress is expected to loose 1.6% of the total vote share and finish at 35%. But these vote share skews in the various sub-regions of Karnataka is going to be very different. It is, as usual going to be a 3 way contest between BJP, Congress and JDS in some 11 seats of South and central Karnataka; and a 2 way contest in the 14 seats of North Karnataka.

Opinion Polls 2014:
Of the 14 Seats of North Karnataka, the Modi wave and the coming back of Yedyurappa is going to help BJP the most. Here it is expected to win 9 seats this time and the Congress would get 5.
Of the 11 seats in South and central Karnataka, the Congress would do much better than last time and would get 6 seats and the JDS and BJP would get 3 seats and 2 seats respectively. In the 3 seats of the Urban Bangalore, the fight is going to be quadrangular with AAP also having jumped in the fray this time. The Congress, the BJP, the AAP is going to get 1 each here.

Over all expected tally would be:
NDA: 12
Congress: 11
JDS:3

AAP:1

Sunday, 20 April 2014

Opinion Polls 2014 Elections - East Total



The overall picture of East is quite fractured, with neither the UPA or the NDA is able to get close to a majority. And though the BJP does quite well on its own, the Congress seems to be completely thriving on alliances here. 

The final tally for east seems to be:


Bihar JKD WB Odisha NES Total East
NDA 22 10 1 4 5 42
UPA 10 4 3 4 14 35
Left 18 3 21
TMC 20 20
JDU 7 7
BJD 13 13
JVM 1 1
AGP 1 1
SDF 1 1
NPF 1 1
Ind 1 1
40 15 42 21 25 143

Now including East, the final tally for the three regions combined would be:

North West East Total
NDA 75 86 42 203
UPA 25 27 35 87
AAP 12 2 0 14
SP 20 20
BSP 17 1 0 18
Left 0 0 21 21
TMC 20 20
JDU 7 7
BJD 13 13
Others 2 5 7

Opinion Poll - Jhakhand 2014 General Elections

The key deciding factor in many seats has been the strength of the alliances formed by the national parties. The BJP had JD(U) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as allies when it put up an impressive performance in 2009. The JD(U) broke 17-year-old ties with BJP in June 2013 opposing Narendra Modi's elevation and JMM has joined hands with the Congress, making the BJP to bank more on the 'Modi wave' to see it through. 


On the other hand, Congress which was reduced to one seat in 2009 General Elections, will be contesting 2014 General Elections in coalition with the JMM and RJD. In 2004, Congress had won 6 seats and JMM had won 4 seats. Furthermore, its other alliance parties RJD and CPI had got two and one seat each. This took the tally to 12.

If one goes by the trend, the BJP is expected to garner 35-40 percent votes in the state if elections are held now. On the other hand, Congress may earn somewhere between 15-20 percent of votes. Shibu Soren's JMM and Babulal Marandi's JVM are expected to get 8 to 7 percent votes. 

So with the BJP getting 37% votes and the Congress + RJD + JMM getting 28% votes, the 14 lok sabha seats would go largely in favor of the BJP.

The final Seat tally would be: 
NDA: 10, UPA: 3, JVM: 1


Opinion polls - Bihar 2014 General Elections


The Bihar Elections are another unfolding of a saga. A founder member of the NDA, the JDU, after a 17 year old tie up and a 12 year old government together decided to severe ties. The Namo wave sees its maximum impact here in the urban areas and BJP alone would have been a strong contender by itself for at least 50% of the 32 seats that were jointly won by the front in 2009. But the story didn't stop there. Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP, a staunch ally of the RJD and the Congress, decided to part ways and move towards the NDA instead. The Congress Party too settled with the alliance along with RJD, only with a good share of seats on its side. Nitish Kumar, having left with no ally in the state moved towards the third front and now has a tie up with CPI, which is fighting in 2 seats as part of that alliance...

The story doesn't end here too. Just one month before the General Elections, half a dozen MLAs of the RJD switched sides and joined JDU... the lone MLA of the LJP too joined JDU... but then 4 Rajya Sabha MPs and prominent figures of the JDU either quit the party or unabashedly joined the BJP. Even one of Nitish Kumar's ministers quit and joined the Aam Aadmi Party here and is posing a stiff challenge in a couple of seats. 

While one can say, the Split in NDA would benefit the UPA here, also that the split in the secular vote is going to help the consolidated upper caste vote in favor of NDA is equally true. With ever increasing party hopping and poll rhetoric, the elections here are not just a triangular contest, but a funny circus to watch. It would be extremely difficult to analyse any trend here, apart from the fact that the Urban 12% voters of the state are definitely on the side of Narendra Modi. With that in mind and the combining all the opinion polls and correcting those, we come to the conclusion that the final seat tally would be:

NDA: 22
UPA: 10
JDU: 7
Ind and others: 1

Saturday, 19 April 2014

Opinion Polls - Odisha 2014 General Elections


These elections of 2014 would possibly test the waters of the Naveen Patnaik led BJD government in Orissa. The fight is triangular, but the BJP's presence is strong only in about 8 consituencies, of which it should convert a large number.


In the 2009 elections the BJD won hands down with 39% votes and 15 out of the 21 seats (1 of this was with CPI, its ally then). The Congress had won the remaining 6 seats with 25% vote share and the BJP drawing a blank with 15% votes. This time, the BJP is bound to gain around 10% vote share and go up to 25%, with the Congress possibly losing 5% and the BJD its 5%. 

Thus the final vote share tally should be: 
BJD: 34%, INC: 24%, BJP: 25%. 

This would surprisingly make the BJP the second largest party in Odisha for the first time in electoral history. The triangular contest in these seats however, would still lead to a BJD dominance. The Lok Sabha seats predicted for the elections are:

BJD: 13, BJP: 4, Congress: 4

Monday, 14 April 2014

Opinion Polls - West Bengal 2014 Elections

West Bengal Parliamentary Constituencies
The biggest of the electoral battles is being fought in the eastern state of West Bengal and this time it is made interesting by not only the TMC-CPIM rivalry, but also the entry of cine stars ranging from Bappi Lahiri to Babul Supriyo to Sandhya Rai and Deb. This time in most of the constituencies the contest is 3 ways and in some, it is four ways too. It is after a long long time that Bengal is seeing so many politcal parties vying for the mainstream space.

Principally the CPIM and the Left, after the drubbing in 2011 assembly elections is going through a long phase of recovery. The voters they have lost between 2009 to 2011 are yet to come back... on top of that, the entry of BJP, the Modi wave and some polarization has led to further erosion in its vote base particularly in rural and Muslim dominated areas. While there is expected to be a 5- 15% of votes erosion compared to last election across the constituencies across the state owing to loss of party organisation and demoralized voters and leaders, the good news comes surprisingly from its arch political rival - the BJP! Because of the deep polarization in many constituencies, and celebrity candidates, the right wing Hindu vote (the staunchest of Left adversaries) might move towards the BJP from TMC. Also because of the earlier overtures of Modi to Mamata, a section of Muslim votes might move to Left also. In few pockets the Musim voters might chose a more radical Muslim party too as an effect, which will again dent the TMC votes. So in spite of the 8% vote swing against, Left may convert many a possible victories to defeats.

The TMC on the other hand is hoping to survive on its organisational strength. The recently concluded panchayat elections gave her a humongous 51% of votes. Even if we remove the cases of alleged rigging and other influences, this would be at least 45%, a good 8-10% lead over the left. However, in its attempt to curb the Left, and excesses committed, the TMC has seriously ignored the urban constituencies and led to the rapid rise of the BJP here. Though confident of the rural votes in South, Central and Western Bengal, the contest is really interesting in Kolkata and surrounding areas - in around 10 constituencies. Here if the Left manages to hold on to 90% of their traditional voters, the ground beneath Mamata's feet would start slipping.

The INC is hoping to give its best in the 4-5 seats of Malda, Murshidabad districts. Its also expecting to do well in the North Bengal constituencies. The main contender here would be the Left again. The BJP is making good inroads into urban West Bengal and is expected to at least double its vote share and even fare better than the INC in the state. Even if the party doesn't win any seats, this itself would be a big achievement for the saffron party.

2014 Predictions
The expected party wise vote share would be:


Vote Share TMC Left INC BJP Others
2009 31% 43% 13% 6% 6%
2011 39% 41% 9% 4% 7%
2014 Pred. 36% 36% 14% 12% 2%

The Final Seat Share would be: 
TMC: 20
Left:18
INC: 3
BJP: 1


   

Sunday, 13 April 2014

Opinion Poll - North East 2014


ASSAM
2009 result: The Congress  had a strong performance in 2009 Loksabha elections with 7 seats and the BJP gaining 4 there. The AIUDF had gained one seat and the AGP drew a blank. The Party wise vote share was following. Congress: 34.9%, BJP : 16.2%, AUDF: 16.1%, AGP: 14.6%, BOPF: 5.4%
2011 Assembly Elections:
The congress gained further in here with 78 out of 126 seats and BJP and AGP got a shocker with 5 and 10 seats respectively.

The Indian National Congress, which had won 7 seats in 2009, is confident of sweeping the elections this year too. The current state government is led by the Congress in coalition with the All India United democratic Front (AIUDF). The average of opinion polls predicts that Congress will win at least 8 seats with BJP gaining the remaining 3 and AUDF and AGP 2 and 1 each. With Modi wave, which would result in a 3% increase in vote share, is having limited impact beyond some urban constituencies, the opinion polls would be largely correct. However, the polls are largely ignoring the impact each of the smaller regional parties have in some pockets and the large erosion of BJP base owing to Gogoi’s high ‘development’ imagery in the state. Basis this, the following is the seat tally predicted for the elections in 2014
Congress : 8, BJP: 3, AUDF: 2, AGP:1
-----------------------------
SIKKIM
The Sikkim democratic front’s strong showing election after election is going to continue. In 2004 the party had won 69% votes and in 2009 63% votes. The trend is going to continue and SDF would pick up the lone seat in the state. Most likely this is going to side with a  third front government.
---------------------------------
MANIPUR
The last general election for the two seats was held in the state in 2009. Candidates of the Indian National Congress (INC) triumphed in both the Parliamentary constituencies. Dr Th Meinya retained the Inner seat defeating his nearest rival Dr M Nara of CPI and Thangso Baite won the Outer Parliamentary seat from Mani Charenamei of the People’s Democratic Alliance in the 15th Lok Sabha polls. (NNN). In the recently concluded assembly elections, the Congress won 42 of the 60 seats. So its expected to win both the lok sabha constituencies. While the Outer Manipur seat is surely to go with the Congress, in the Inner Manipur seat, interestingly the last two time CPI‘s runner up Dr. Nara is a common candidate of 11 parties here. All India Forward Block, BSP, CPI, CPI (M), JD (U), JD (S), NCP, Shiv Sena, RSP, and People’s Democratic Alliance have fielded a strong candidate and thus has a strong chance to win.
So here we would stick our neck out and predict the following for the 2 lok sabha seats:
INC: 1, CPI: 1
-------------------------------
MIZORAM
In 2009, the Congress won the lone lok sabha seat and in 2013 November assembly elections, swept the polls with 32 out of 40 seats. The Congress is expected to win the lok sabha seat this time too.
-------------------------------
NAGALAND
The Naga People’s Front which has been winning the elections here for the lone lok Sabha seat with huge margins is going to win again this time. The Margins, as like in Mizoram are too high to cover up for any wave.
-------------------------------
MEGHALAYA
This state has two lok sabha seats – Shillong and Tura. While the SHillong seat has been a stronghold of the Congress and is expected to win it again, the contest in Tura seat would be one of prestige this time, with PA Sangma, the former CM and lok sabha speaker is going to run as a NPP candidate here. In the recently concluded 2013 assembly elections, the Congress won 29 out of 60 seats and formed the government here. The impact of that would definitely be seen this time around and Congress is expected to win in both the seats.
--------------------------------
ARUNACHAL PRADESH
While both the seats went to Congress here in 2009, the Arunachal West constituency was won on a very small margin of 1300 votes. This one would definitely go to the BJP this time, which won it in 2004 too. The Arunachal East constituency however, would see a tough contest between the two national parties. With the Congress government finishing its 5 year term here, anti-incumbency plus Namo effect would have an impact and BJP would win here too.
TRIPURA
This state can be called the CPIM’s strangest two bastions in the country. Here the Manik Sarkar run government stormed back to power with 49 out of 60 seats.  The CPI its partner picked up one and the weakened Congress finished with just 10 seats. If the CPIM is confident of winning anywhere in the country, it’s here.


TOTAL NORTH EAST
Party
Assam
AP
Mizoram
Meghalaya
Manipur
Tripura
Sikkim
Naga
TOTAL
UPA
10

1
2
1



14
NDA
3
2






5
AGP
1







1
SDF






1

1
Left




1
2


3
NPF







1
1

14
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
25