Opinion Poll - North East 2014

ASSAM

2009 result: The Congress  had a strong performance in 2009 Loksabha elections with 7 seats and the BJP gaining 4 there. The AIUDF had gained one seat and the AGP drew a blank. The Party wise vote share was following. Congress: 34.9%, BJP : 16.2%, AUDF: 16.1%, AGP: 14.6%, BOPF: 5.4%

2011 Assembly Elections:

The congress gained further in here with 78 out of 126 seats and BJP and AGP got a shocker with 5 and 10 seats respectively.

The Indian National Congress, which had won 7 seats in 2009, is confident of sweeping the elections this year too. The current state government is led by the Congress in coalition with the All India United democratic Front (AIUDF). The average of opinion polls predicts that Congress will win at least 8 seats with BJP gaining the remaining 3 and AUDF and AGP 2 and 1 each. With Modi wave, which would result in a 3% increase in vote share, is having limited impact beyond some urban constituencies, the opinion polls would be largely correct. However, the polls are largely ignoring the impact each of the smaller regional parties have in some pockets and the large erosion of BJP base owing to Gogoi’s high ‘development’ imagery in the state. Basis this, the following is the seat tally predicted for the elections in 2014

Congress : 8, BJP: 3, AUDF: 2, AGP:1

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SIKKIM

The Sikkim democratic front’s strong showing election after election is going to continue. In 2004 the party had won 69% votes and in 2009 63% votes. The trend is going to continue and SDF would pick up the lone seat in the state. Most likely this is going to side with a  third front government.

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MANIPUR

The last general election for the two seats was held in the state in 2009. Candidates of the Indian National Congress (INC) triumphed in both the Parliamentary constituencies. Dr Th Meinya retained the Inner seat defeating his nearest rival Dr M Nara of CPI and Thangso Baite won the Outer Parliamentary seat from Mani Charenamei of the People’s Democratic Alliance in the 15th Lok Sabha polls. (NNN). In the recently concluded assembly elections, the Congress won 42 of the 60 seats. So its expected to win both the lok sabha constituencies. While the Outer Manipur seat is surely to go with the Congress, in the Inner Manipur seat, interestingly the last two time CPI‘s runner up Dr. Nara is a common candidate of 11 parties here. All India Forward Block, BSP, CPI, CPI (M), JD (U), JD (S), NCP, Shiv Sena, RSP, and People’s Democratic Alliance have fielded a strong candidate and thus has a strong chance to win.

So here we would stick our neck out and predict the following for the 2 lok sabha seats:

INC: 1, CPI: 1

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MIZORAM

In 2009, the Congress won the lone lok sabha seat and in 2013 November assembly elections, swept the polls with 32 out of 40 seats. The Congress is expected to win the lok sabha seat this time too.

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NAGALAND

The Naga People’s Front which has been winning the elections here for the lone lok Sabha seat with huge margins is going to win again this time. The Margins, as like in Mizoram are too high to cover up for any wave.

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MEGHALAYA

This state has two lok sabha seats – Shillong and Tura. While the SHillong seat has been a stronghold of the Congress and is expected to win it again, the contest in Tura seat would be one of prestige this time, with PA Sangma, the former CM and lok sabha speaker is going to run as a NPP candidate here. In the recently concluded 2013 assembly elections, the Congress won 29 out of 60 seats and formed the government here. The impact of that would definitely be seen this time around and Congress is expected to win in both the seats.

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ARUNACHAL PRADESH

While both the seats went to Congress here in 2009, the Arunachal West constituency was won on a very small margin of 1300 votes. This one would definitely go to the BJP this time, which won it in 2004 too. The Arunachal East constituency however, would see a tough contest between the two national parties. With the Congress government finishing its 5 year term here, anti-incumbency plus Namo effect would have an impact and BJP would win here too.

TRIPURA

This state can be called the CPIM’s strangest two bastions in the country. Here the Manik Sarkar run government stormed back to power with 49 out of 60 seats.  The CPI its partner picked up one and the weakened Congress finished with just 10 seats. If the CPIM is confident of winning anywhere in the country, it’s here.

TOTAL NORTH EAST

Party	Assam	AP	Mizoram	Meghalaya	Manipur	Tripura	Sikkim	Naga	TOTAL
UPA	10		1	2	1				14
NDA	3	2							5
AGP	1								1
SDF							1		1
Left					1	2			3
NPF								1	1
	14	2	1	2	2	2	1	1	25