The key deciding factor in
many seats has been the strength of the alliances formed by the national
parties. The BJP had JD(U) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as allies when it
put up an impressive performance in 2009. The JD(U) broke 17-year-old ties with
BJP in June 2013 opposing Narendra Modi's elevation and JMM has joined hands
with the Congress, making the BJP to bank more on the 'Modi wave' to see it
through.
On the
other hand, Congress which was reduced to one seat in 2009 General Elections,
will be contesting 2014 General Elections in coalition with the JMM and RJD. In
2004, Congress had won 6 seats and JMM had won 4 seats. Furthermore, its other
alliance parties RJD and CPI had got two and one seat each. This took the tally
to 12.
If one goes by the trend,
the BJP is expected to garner 35-40 percent votes in the state if elections are
held now. On the other hand, Congress may earn somewhere between 15-20 percent
of votes. Shibu Soren's JMM and Babulal Marandi's JVM are expected to get 8 to
7 percent votes.
So with the BJP getting 37% votes and the Congress + RJD + JMM getting 28% votes, the 14 lok sabha seats would go largely in favor of the BJP.
The final Seat tally would be:
NDA: 10, UPA: 3, JVM: 1
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