Opinion Polls - Karnataka General Elections 2014

In the 2008 elections, the BJP got a vote share of 33.86 per cent and won 110 seats, improving upon its earlier tally of 28.33 per cent votes and 79 seats. The Congress was marginally ahead of BJP in terms of vote share with 34.76 per cent — a decline from 35.27 per cent in 2004. JD(S) fell from 20.77 to18.96 per cent. Riding on this assembly win of 2008, the BJP got a 42% vote share in 2009 and 19 of the 28 seats. The Congress won 6 and the JD(S) won 3. Last year, the Congress won a comeback 122 seats, up from 80 in 2008, by adding just 1.6 percentage points to its 2008 vote share. On the other hand, the BJP crashed both in seats (40 from 110 in 2008) and vote share (20.07 from 33.93 percent in 2008). The BJP lost its deposit on 110 seats; the Congress on 23.

As for BSY's Karnataka Jantha Paksha (KJP), the claim that it wrecked the BJP is a myth. Analysts cite its average vote share of 10.82 percent on the 204 of the state's 224 seats it contested to back that claim. But that figure was skewed by shares of 50.76, 49.89, 44.89, 43.21, 39.57 and 32.11 percents that the KJP notched up on the six seats it won. The KJP placed second on 33 assembly seats. But even there BSY's return won't help. Those assembly seats are spread over 13 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP had won 10 in 2009. At best it can retain them with BSY's return but even that would be hard given the BJP's overall declining fortunes.

So even if BJP gains the entire KJP vote back in 2014 and gets some additional 3% due to gains in North Karnataka because of Narendra Modi, the vote share is going to be 33%. The JDS here had in the assembly elections increased its vote share to 20% and is expected to retain the same in 2009. The congress is expected to loose 1.6% of the total vote share and finish at 35%. But these vote share skews in the various sub-regions of Karnataka is going to be very different. It is, as usual going to be a 3 way contest between BJP, Congress and JDS in some 11 seats of South and central Karnataka; and a 2 way contest in the 14 seats of North Karnataka.

Opinion Polls 2014:

Of the 14 Seats of North Karnataka, the Modi wave and the coming back of Yedyurappa is going to help BJP the most. Here it is expected to win 9 seats this time and the Congress would get 5.

Of the 11 seats in South and central Karnataka, the Congress would do much better than last time and would get 6 seats and the JDS and BJP would get 3 seats and 2 seats respectively. In the 3 seats of the Urban Bangalore, the fight is going to be quadrangular with AAP also having jumped in the fray this time. The Congress, the BJP, the AAP is going to get 1 each here.

Over all expected tally would be:

NDA: 12

Congress: 11

JDS:3

AAP:1