Opinion Polls - Andhra Pradesh 2014 General Elections

Another fascinating story of the elections 2014, and probably the most, is that of AP. Just by dividing the state in two parts, something the Congress has promised in its 2009 manifesto, led to emergence of two new parties which are going to possibly form two new governments in June. At least that's what the opinion polls for the state assemblies in Telengana and Seemandhra are showing. This means the Congress is going to loose its backyard to its fierce loyalist's son - Jagan Reddy. It seems in the last decade or so, all decisions of the party - whether not agreeing to Telengana separation first post 2004, then not allowing Jagan to be the CM after his father's death and finally the bifurcation itself - everything has proved costly to the Congress party. Even its last CM in power Kiran Reddy has decided to form another party and is fighting hard in some parts of Rayalseema. 

Chandrababu Naidu, on the other hand, is waiting desperately to govern half the state he once presided like a CEO from Hyderabad. Its partner the BJP is all preparing to carry on the partnership for some time as they need the required number of MPs from the state. The BJP is happy to play a second fiddle in Seemandhra and is possibly going to lose whatever support base it has in Telengana too. The TRS would be glad to form the next government in Telengana, with or without the support of Congress. All it wants now is to get the reigns of the newly formed state. The left with its some pockets of influence in Khammam and Nalgonda would want to ally with either the Congress or the TRS in Telengana. In Seemandhra, they would probably need to do a lot of rethink of their strategy regarding consolidating in elections. The expected results would be:

TELENGANA (17):
TRS: 7
Congress: 8
MIM: 1
CPI: 1

SEEMANDHRA (25):
Congress: 0
YSRCP: 10
TDP: 13
BJP: 1
JSAP: 1

Opinion Polls - Tamil Nadu 2014 General Elections

Tamil Nadu is a story of opportunity lost for Jayalalitha. The AIADMK alliance along with the left across opinion polls was getting 33-35 seats out of the 40 of TN + Pondicherry. This party was ended by Mrs Jayalalitha herself by pulling herself out of the alliance. The reasons they say are many. One, Jayalalitha is prone to flaws in self evaluation and typically over estimates her strength mostly due to flattery of close confidantes. Two, in her measurement the Third front stood little chance of forming a government vis-a-vis the NDA under Modi and under pressure from her right wing advisories took the course. But f any one gained from her decision is the wily old man - Karunanidhi. Left all alone with BJP having its own alliance and the Left and Congress deciding to go alone too with full force, the AIADMK was locked in a first time ever 4-5 way contest in most of the constituencies. The Congress, Left, the AAP even though have  a bleak chance of winning any seat, would possibly cut into the major parties vote in heavy doses in their own areas of influence. The NDA with 6 party alliance headed by BJP would definitely be able to convert their high vote share into some seats in the state. But when it comes to seats, the AIADMK and the DMK would split the seats among themselves, but not like how it was being projected. Having ditched the left harmed her in more than one way - now she was no longer the PM candidate of the third front and the the entire opposition from the right to the left was only raising their voice against her government day and night. 

The opinion polls too are now changing their loyalty. From a high of 30 seats, AIADMK seems to have come down to 21-22 in most. The DMK has a chance of increasing its tally from 5(initial estimates) to even 15 seats here. the NDA would get a lot of votes but as per opinion polls is getting 4-6 seats. Basis these estimates, we would like to jump straight to our opinion polls forecast:

AIADMK: 20

DMK: 15

NDA: 4

Congress: 0

AAP:0

Left:1

Opinion Poll - Jhakhand 2014 General Elections

The key deciding factor in many seats has been the strength of the alliances formed by the national parties. The BJP had JD(U) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as allies when it put up an impressive performance in 2009. The JD(U) broke 17-year-old ties with BJP in June 2013 opposing Narendra Modi's elevation and JMM has joined hands with the Congress, making the BJP to bank more on the 'Modi wave' to see it through. 

On the other hand, Congress which was reduced to one seat in 2009 General Elections, will be contesting 2014 General Elections in coalition with the JMM and RJD. In 2004, Congress had won 6 seats and JMM had won 4 seats. Furthermore, its other alliance parties RJD and CPI had got two and one seat each. This took the tally to 12.

If one goes by the trend, the BJP is expected to garner 35-40 percent votes in the state if elections are held now. On the other hand, Congress may earn somewhere between 15-20 percent of votes. Shibu Soren's JMM and Babulal Marandi's JVM are expected to get 8 to 7 percent votes. 

So with the BJP getting 37% votes and the Congress + RJD + JMM getting 28% votes, the 14 lok sabha seats would go largely in favor of the BJP.

The final Seat tally would be: 

NDA: 10, UPA: 3, JVM: 1

Opinion Polls - Odisha 2014 General Elections

These elections of 2014 would possibly test the waters of the Naveen Patnaik led BJD government in Orissa. The fight is triangular, but the BJP's presence is strong only in about 8 consituencies, of which it should convert a large number.

In the 2009 elections the BJD won hands down with 39% votes and 15 out of the 21 seats (1 of this was with CPI, its ally then). The Congress had won the remaining 6 seats with 25% vote share and the BJP drawing a blank with 15% votes. This time, the BJP is bound to gain around 10% vote share and go up to 25%, with the Congress possibly losing 5% and the BJD its 5%. 

Thus the final vote share tally should be: 

BJD: 34%, INC: 24%, BJP: 25%. 

This would surprisingly make the BJP the second largest party in Odisha for the first time in electoral history. The triangular contest in these seats however, would still lead to a BJD dominance. The Lok Sabha seats predicted for the elections are:

BJD: 13, BJP: 4, Congress: 4

Opinion Polls - West Bengal 2014 Elections

The biggest of the electoral battles is being fought in the eastern state of West Bengal and this time it is made interesting by not only the TMC-CPIM rivalry, but also the entry of cine stars ranging from Bappi Lahiri to Babul Supriyo to Sandhya Rai and Deb. This time in most of the constituencies the contest is 3 ways and in some, it is four ways too. It is after a long long time that Bengal is seeing so many politcal parties vying for the mainstream space.

Principally the CPIM and the Left, after the drubbing in 2011 assembly elections is going through a long phase of recovery. The voters they have lost between 2009 to 2011 are yet to come back... on top of that, the entry of BJP, the Modi wave and some polarization has led to further erosion in its vote base particularly in rural and Muslim dominated areas. While there is expected to be a 5- 15% of votes erosion compared to last election across the constituencies across the state owing to loss of party organisation and demoralized voters and leaders, the good news comes surprisingly from its arch political rival - the BJP! Because of the deep polarization in many constituencies, and celebrity candidates, the right wing Hindu vote (the staunchest of Left adversaries) might move towards the BJP from TMC. Also because of the earlier overtures of Modi to Mamata, a section of Muslim votes might move to Left also. In few pockets the Musim voters might chose a more radical Muslim party too as an effect, which will again dent the TMC votes. So in spite of the 8% vote swing against, Left may convert many a possible victories to defeats.

The TMC on the other hand is hoping to survive on its organisational strength. The recently concluded panchayat elections gave her a humongous 51% of votes. Even if we remove the cases of alleged rigging and other influences, this would be at least 45%, a good 8-10% lead over the left. However, in its attempt to curb the Left, and excesses committed, the TMC has seriously ignored the urban constituencies and led to the rapid rise of the BJP here. Though confident of the rural votes in South, Central and Western Bengal, the contest is really interesting in Kolkata and surrounding areas - in around 10 constituencies. Here if the Left manages to hold on to 90% of their traditional voters, the ground beneath Mamata's feet would start slipping.

The INC is hoping to give its best in the 4-5 seats of Malda, Murshidabad districts. Its also expecting to do well in the North Bengal constituencies. The main contender here would be the Left again. The BJP is making good inroads into urban West Bengal and is expected to at least double its vote share and even fare better than the INC in the state. Even if the party doesn't win any seats, this itself would be a big achievement for the saffron party.

2014 Predictions
The expected party wise vote share would be:

Vote Share	TMC	Left	INC	BJP	Others
2009	31%	43%	13%	6%	6%
2011	39%	41%	9%	4%	7%
2014 Pred.	36%	36%	14%	12%	2%

The Final Seat Share would be: 
TMC: 20
Left:18
INC: 3
BJP: 1


   

Opinion Poll - North East 2014

ASSAM

2009 result: The Congress  had a strong performance in 2009 Loksabha elections with 7 seats and the BJP gaining 4 there. The AIUDF had gained one seat and the AGP drew a blank. The Party wise vote share was following. Congress: 34.9%, BJP : 16.2%, AUDF: 16.1%, AGP: 14.6%, BOPF: 5.4%

2011 Assembly Elections:

The congress gained further in here with 78 out of 126 seats and BJP and AGP got a shocker with 5 and 10 seats respectively.

The Indian National Congress, which had won 7 seats in 2009, is confident of sweeping the elections this year too. The current state government is led by the Congress in coalition with the All India United democratic Front (AIUDF). The average of opinion polls predicts that Congress will win at least 8 seats with BJP gaining the remaining 3 and AUDF and AGP 2 and 1 each. With Modi wave, which would result in a 3% increase in vote share, is having limited impact beyond some urban constituencies, the opinion polls would be largely correct. However, the polls are largely ignoring the impact each of the smaller regional parties have in some pockets and the large erosion of BJP base owing to Gogoi’s high ‘development’ imagery in the state. Basis this, the following is the seat tally predicted for the elections in 2014

Congress : 8, BJP: 3, AUDF: 2, AGP:1

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SIKKIM

The Sikkim democratic front’s strong showing election after election is going to continue. In 2004 the party had won 69% votes and in 2009 63% votes. The trend is going to continue and SDF would pick up the lone seat in the state. Most likely this is going to side with a  third front government.

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MANIPUR

The last general election for the two seats was held in the state in 2009. Candidates of the Indian National Congress (INC) triumphed in both the Parliamentary constituencies. Dr Th Meinya retained the Inner seat defeating his nearest rival Dr M Nara of CPI and Thangso Baite won the Outer Parliamentary seat from Mani Charenamei of the People’s Democratic Alliance in the 15th Lok Sabha polls. (NNN). In the recently concluded assembly elections, the Congress won 42 of the 60 seats. So its expected to win both the lok sabha constituencies. While the Outer Manipur seat is surely to go with the Congress, in the Inner Manipur seat, interestingly the last two time CPI‘s runner up Dr. Nara is a common candidate of 11 parties here. All India Forward Block, BSP, CPI, CPI (M), JD (U), JD (S), NCP, Shiv Sena, RSP, and People’s Democratic Alliance have fielded a strong candidate and thus has a strong chance to win.

So here we would stick our neck out and predict the following for the 2 lok sabha seats:

INC: 1, CPI: 1

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MIZORAM

In 2009, the Congress won the lone lok sabha seat and in 2013 November assembly elections, swept the polls with 32 out of 40 seats. The Congress is expected to win the lok sabha seat this time too.

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NAGALAND

The Naga People’s Front which has been winning the elections here for the lone lok Sabha seat with huge margins is going to win again this time. The Margins, as like in Mizoram are too high to cover up for any wave.

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MEGHALAYA

This state has two lok sabha seats – Shillong and Tura. While the SHillong seat has been a stronghold of the Congress and is expected to win it again, the contest in Tura seat would be one of prestige this time, with PA Sangma, the former CM and lok sabha speaker is going to run as a NPP candidate here. In the recently concluded 2013 assembly elections, the Congress won 29 out of 60 seats and formed the government here. The impact of that would definitely be seen this time around and Congress is expected to win in both the seats.

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ARUNACHAL PRADESH

While both the seats went to Congress here in 2009, the Arunachal West constituency was won on a very small margin of 1300 votes. This one would definitely go to the BJP this time, which won it in 2004 too. The Arunachal East constituency however, would see a tough contest between the two national parties. With the Congress government finishing its 5 year term here, anti-incumbency plus Namo effect would have an impact and BJP would win here too.

TRIPURA

This state can be called the CPIM’s strangest two bastions in the country. Here the Manik Sarkar run government stormed back to power with 49 out of 60 seats.  The CPI its partner picked up one and the weakened Congress finished with just 10 seats. If the CPIM is confident of winning anywhere in the country, it’s here.

TOTAL NORTH EAST

Party	Assam	AP	Mizoram	Meghalaya	Manipur	Tripura	Sikkim	Naga	TOTAL
UPA	10		1	2	1				14
NDA	3	2							5
AGP	1								1
SDF							1		1
Left					1	2			3
NPF								1	1
	14	2	1	2	2	2	1	1	25

Western India - Final Opinion Poll 2014

This is the region where the NDA seems to gain the maximum due to NaMo wave. The Congress seems to lose the maximum here - corruption, inflation and reduced rate of development seems to occupy the voters mindspace. The AAP shows some signs of emergence thought it is minor compared to its showing in North India. 'Others' as factor play an insignificant roles - particularly the left seems to get decimated even in its limited sphere of influences in Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. 

Over all the picture is an all smiles one for Narendra Modi and Rajnath Singh!

So in the North and West of the country, where the BJP and the NDA is expected to do well, the alliance is doing really well. Overall, in the 267 seats of these states, the NDA gets a lions share of 161 seats. The UPA is decimated to 52 seats here and the AAP makes its presence felt in the urban belts with 14 seats. 

	North	West	Total
NDA	75	86	161
UPA	25	27	52
AAP	12	2	14
SP	20		20
BSP	17	1	18
Others	2		2
	151	116	267

Goa Opinion Polls - India Opinion Polls 2014

Goa in 2012:

The Bharatiya Janata Party-Maharashtrawadi Gomantak alliance defeated the incumbent Indian National Congress government in Goa led by Chief Minister Digambar Kamat with 24 seats in the 40-seat assembly. The Bharatiya Janata Party won 21 seats, while the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party won 3 seats. Former chief minister Manohar Parrikar was sworn in as the new chief minister. Congress finished as the second largest party with 9 seats out of 40 in the assembly.

2014 Predictions:

With the MGP as well as the Goa Vikas Party throwing its weight around BJP, the two seats of Goa can be safely considered to be in BJP's pocket.

Final Election Tally for 2014 would be: BJP 2, Congress 0.

Maharashtra - India Opinion Polls 2014

2009 Elections:

There were speculations much before the Lok Sabha elections about the Congress party’s complete elimination owing to people’s anger due to 26/11 incident, which even led to subsequent departure of Vilas Rao Deshmukh as Chief Minister. However, the incumbent Ashok Chavan government of Congress proved all equations wrong when the Congress party emerged victorious in 17 seats and restricted Shiv Sena and BJP at 11 and 9 seats respectively. Besides, the anti-immigrant campaign of the Raj Thackeray's MNS and its influence in eight seats in the Mumbai region, apart from two in Nashik and Pune, dealt a severe blow to the vote bank of Shiv Sena and BJP. The NCP led by Sharad Pawar contested on 21 seats in this election. However, the party managed to win 8 seats, which is one less than what it previously held. There was a marginal swing in NCP’s vote share.

United Progressive Alliance	SEATS	National Democratic Alliance	SEATS	OTHERS	SEATS
Indian National Congress	17	Bharatiya Janata Party	9	Swabhimani Paksha	1
Nationalist Congress Party	8	Shiv Sena	11	Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi	1
				Independent	1
TOTAL (2009)	25	TOTAL (2009)	20	TOTAL (2009)	3
TOTAL (2004)	22	TOTAL (2004)	25	TOTAL (2004)	1

2014 Predictions

It is important to note that BJP here finished as the third largest party in terms of vote share at 14% while the Congress and NCP at 21% and 15% each. going by the national trend however - called the Namo wave, the Hindu votes would see a consolidation and there would be a tough fight between both the alliances in both Rural and Urban centers. Both AAP and MNS are going to be a big factor in Mumbai and some other urban centers. While the MNS is surely going to eat into the Shiv Sena vote bank, the pact with BJP is going to help the BJP in its seats surely. For AAP the play would completely be in Mumbai with heavyweight candidates like Medha Patkar, Meera Sanyal and Mayank Gandhi in the fray there. The joining of Raju Shetty's and Athavale's parties with NDA would give the BJP's chances a definite boost in Rural Maharashtra. However, if the Left parties - the PWP and CPM throw their weight with the Congress in some constituencies, there might be some swing back in Congress's favor.

This definitely is the most difficult state to predict, given that strong and deep rooted political traditions as well as candidate selection play a huge role at a local level. 

So here, we have gone constituency by constituency and done a prediction for every seat. 

The BJP which had won 9 seats last time and had finished second in another 12 is going to win 80% of the seats contested and get 18 seats here.

The ShivSena, despite the losses owing to MNS is also going to win 14 seats here and increase its tally by 3. 

The Congress and the NCP would win only in 7 seats and 6 seats each, majorly in its pocket Burroughs of Rural Vidarbha. 

The AAP would win in 2 seats in Mumbai and the MNS 1.

So the final tally is expected to be:

Congress:  7

NCP:            6

BJP:           18

ShivSena: 14

AAP:             2

MNS:            1