Tamil Nadu is a story of opportunity lost for Jayalalitha. The AIADMK alliance along with the left across opinion polls was getting 33-35 seats out of the 40 of TN + Pondicherry. This party was ended by Mrs Jayalalitha herself by pulling herself out of the alliance. The reasons they say are many. One, Jayalalitha is prone to flaws in self evaluation and typically over estimates her strength mostly due to flattery of close confidantes. Two, in her measurement the Third front stood little chance of forming a government vis-a-vis the NDA under Modi and under pressure from her right wing advisories took the course. But f any one gained from her decision is the wily old man - Karunanidhi. Left all alone with BJP having its own alliance and the Left and Congress deciding to go alone too with full force, the AIADMK was locked in a first time ever 4-5 way contest in most of the constituencies. The Congress, Left, the AAP even though have a bleak chance of winning any seat, would possibly cut into the major parties vote in heavy doses in their own areas of influence. The NDA with 6 party alliance headed by BJP would definitely be able to convert their high vote share into some seats in the state. But when it comes to seats, the AIADMK and the DMK would split the seats among themselves, but not like how it was being projected. Having ditched the left harmed her in more than one way - now she was no longer the PM candidate of the third front and the the entire opposition from the right to the left was only raising their voice against her government day and night.
The opinion polls too are now changing their loyalty. From a high of 30 seats, AIADMK seems to have come down to 21-22 in most. The DMK has a chance of increasing its tally from 5(initial estimates) to even 15 seats here. the NDA would get a lot of votes but as per opinion polls is getting 4-6 seats. Basis these estimates, we would like to jump straight to our opinion polls forecast:
AIADMK: 20
DMK: 15
NDA: 4
Congress: 0
AAP:0
Left:1
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