The biggest of the electoral battles is being fought in the eastern state of West Bengal and this time it is made interesting by not only the TMC-CPIM rivalry, but also the entry of cine stars ranging from Bappi Lahiri to Babul Supriyo to Sandhya Rai and Deb. This time in most of the constituencies the contest is 3 ways and in some, it is four ways too. It is after a long long time that Bengal is seeing so many politcal parties vying for the mainstream space.
Principally the CPIM and the Left, after the drubbing in 2011 assembly elections is going through a long phase of recovery. The voters they have lost between 2009 to 2011 are yet to come back... on top of that, the entry of BJP, the Modi wave and some polarization has led to further erosion in its vote base particularly in rural and Muslim dominated areas. While there is expected to be a 5- 15% of votes erosion compared to last election across the constituencies across the state owing to loss of party organisation and demoralized voters and leaders, the good news comes surprisingly from its arch political rival - the BJP! Because of the deep polarization in many constituencies, and celebrity candidates, the right wing Hindu vote (the staunchest of Left adversaries) might move towards the BJP from TMC. Also because of the earlier overtures of Modi to Mamata, a section of Muslim votes might move to Left also. In few pockets the Musim voters might chose a more radical Muslim party too as an effect, which will again dent the TMC votes. So in spite of the 8% vote swing against, Left may convert many a possible victories to defeats.
The TMC on the other hand is hoping to survive on its organisational strength. The recently concluded panchayat elections gave her a humongous 51% of votes. Even if we remove the cases of alleged rigging and other influences, this would be at least 45%, a good 8-10% lead over the left. However, in its attempt to curb the Left, and excesses committed, the TMC has seriously ignored the urban constituencies and led to the rapid rise of the BJP here. Though confident of the rural votes in South, Central and Western Bengal, the contest is really interesting in Kolkata and surrounding areas - in around 10 constituencies. Here if the Left manages to hold on to 90% of their traditional voters, the ground beneath Mamata's feet would start slipping.
The INC is hoping to give its best in the 4-5 seats of Malda, Murshidabad districts. Its also expecting to do well in the North Bengal constituencies. The main contender here would be the Left again. The BJP is making good inroads into urban West Bengal and is expected to at least double its vote share and even fare better than the INC in the state. Even if the party doesn't win any seats, this itself would be a big achievement for the saffron party.
2014 Predictions
The expected party wise vote share would be:
| Vote Share | TMC | Left | INC | BJP | Others |
| 2009 | 31% | 43% | 13% | 6% | 6% |
| 2011 | 39% | 41% | 9% | 4% | 7% |
| 2014 Pred. | 36% | 36% | 14% | 12% | 2% |
The Final Seat Share would be:
TMC: 20
Left:18
INC: 3
BJP: 1
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