This has been one state that's been a real pollster nightmare. So much so that forget opinion polls, even the exit polls typically has very little sanctity. This is because of the fact that even very small swings of 1% have made one of the two coalitions win or loose and this has been going on for the past 30 years now.
The ruling coalition - UDF faces a stiff anti-incumbency and the opposition LDF is plagued with infighting. That makes the contest even. In the last assembly elections in 2011, the UDF had come to power with some wafer thin margins and the LDF under the stewardship of VS Achhutanandan had very steadfastly assuaged much of the anti-incumbency coming its way. Similarly the Oomen Chandy government has now with deft handling of certain issues made sure that the ruling party's dominance in certain parts would continue. The LDF on the other hand has placed 5 ex-congress men as its candidates in Congress strongholds and also made sure a good representation of Christians - a traditional vote base of Congress here, to dent into a good number of UDF votes. LDF on the other hand lost its key ally, the RSP to UDF and that may impact its results in a couple of seats here.
The BJP has tried its best to increase its vote share to its ever highest, but the factionalism within its ranks is going to cost them very severely. The party is not going to get more than 8% votes here - denting the Congress vote base a little in some constituencies like Trivandrum. The Aap is going to be a strong effect in some seats like Cochin and Trivandrum and is mostly going to impact the Left votes.
Overall, considering these scenarios we would go by what the latest NDTV opinion polls suggest here (not many channels and polls cover Kerala as much).
The vote share of LDF is going to increase from 39% to 42% and the UDF is going to reduce from 48% to 45%. As a result, the final seat tally would be:
UPA: 9
Left:11
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