India Opinion Polls 2014 - North India FINAL

The NaMo magic seems to have worked in North India and NDA seems to have won a simple majority here. Out of the 151 seats in North the BJP sits on a razor thin majority with 75 seats. And we stick our neck out to say that. A large number of its seats - 55 out of these 76 come from 2 states here i.e. UP and Rajasthan. It doesn't seem to do so well in Punjab, coming second to Congress combine here.

The Congress on the other hand, does good only in Punjab and hills and loses badly in Haryana, Rajasthan and UP. The AAP seems to win a surprise 12 seats here. These seem to be mostly coming from NCR region (7). It doesnt open its account in Rajasthan, J&K and Uttarakhand.

The SP and the BSP are the other 2 large parties coming out of the region. The SP seems to win 20 seats, the BSP gets 17 only.

The FINAL TALLY for North India would be:

	Punjab	Haryana	Hills	UP	Rajasthan	Delhi
NDA	5	5	7	34	21	3	75
UPA	6	2	6	7	3	1	25
AAP	3	3	1	2		3	12
SP				20			20
BSP				17			17
Others			1		1		2
	14	10	15	80	25	7	151

India Opinion Polls 2014 - Delhi & Rajasthan

One of the easiest predictions would be for the states where elections were held just a few months ago, i.e. in November 2013. Here the Opinion Polls would not dare go too wrong considering the biggest opinion polls have been held very recently. Lets look at the results a little closely then. It’s safe to say then that the Opinion Polls are correct.

Rajasthan

Here the BJP on the back of a severe NaMo wave completely swept the elections. Seat after seat one could feel the impact of the opposition party's PM candidate. The Congress lost 75 seats from the previous term and won only 21. The winter heat was felt by all other parties too. While the BSP lost 3 seats, down from 6; the Communists who claimed to be leading a third front, won none, down from a previous 3. The BJP here got a massive 46% of votes and 162 seats, while the Congress came a distant second at 34%.

If we go by the ratio of these seats then the BJP would win 80% of the seats here, while the Congress would get only 3

  

Delhi:

Here the Aam Aadmi Party made its legendary debut and came as a storm, dwarfing a very good show by the BJP, led by the new found leader Dr. Harshvardhan. The polls made Aap win 28 seats with a vote share of 31%, while the BJP ended up being the largest party here with 33 seats and a 34% vote share. The Congress came a distant third here with 25% vote share and only 8 seats. Though the opinion polls are showing a majority for Arvind Kejriwal's party and giving him most of the seats, I think, with the diminishing Aap's image among middle class voters, the seats and vote share would go down a little. The Namo wave is also supposed to show higher impact in the Lok Sabha elections than the erstwhile Assembly elections.

The final vote and seat share predicted here would be

AAP: 29%,              3 seats

BJP: 35%,              3 seats

Congress 24%:    1 seat