One of the easiest predictions would be for the states where
elections were held just a few months ago, i.e. in November 2013. Here the
Opinion Polls would not dare go too wrong considering the biggest opinion polls
have been held very recently. Lets look at the results a little closely then.
It’s safe to say then that the Opinion Polls are correct.
Rajasthan
Here the BJP on the back of a severe NaMo wave completely
swept the elections. Seat after seat one could feel the impact of the
opposition party's PM candidate. The Congress lost 75 seats from the previous
term and won only 21. The winter heat was felt by all other parties too. While
the BSP lost 3 seats, down from 6; the Communists who claimed to be leading a
third front, won none, down from a previous 3. The BJP here got a massive 46%
of votes and 162 seats, while the Congress came a distant second at 34%.
If we go by the ratio of these seats then the BJP would win
80% of the seats here, while the Congress would get only 3
Here the Aam Aadmi Party made its legendary debut and came
as a storm, dwarfing a very good show by the BJP, led by the new found leader
Dr. Harshvardhan. The polls made Aap win 28 seats with a vote share of 31%,
while the BJP ended up being the largest party here with 33 seats and a 34%
vote share. The Congress came a distant third here with 25% vote share and only
8 seats. Though the opinion polls are showing a majority for Arvind Kejriwal's
party and giving him most of the seats, I think, with the diminishing Aap's
image among middle class voters, the seats and vote share would go down a
little. The Namo wave is also supposed to show higher impact in the Lok Sabha
elections than the erstwhile Assembly elections.
The final vote and seat share predicted here would be
Congress 24%: 1 seat
One of the easiest predictions would be for the states where
elections were held just a few months ago, i.e. in November 2013. Here the
Opinion Polls would not dare go too wrong considering the biggest opinion polls
have been held very recently. Lets look at the results a little closely then.
It’s safe to say then that the Opinion Polls are correct.
Rajasthan
Here the BJP on the back of a severe NaMo wave completely
swept the elections. Seat after seat one could feel the impact of the
opposition party's PM candidate. The Congress lost 75 seats from the previous
term and won only 21. The winter heat was felt by all other parties too. While
the BSP lost 3 seats, down from 6; the Communists who claimed to be leading a
third front, won none, down from a previous 3. The BJP here got a massive 46%
of votes and 162 seats, while the Congress came a distant second at 34%.
If we go by the ratio of these seats then the BJP would win
80% of the seats here, while the Congress would get only 3
Delhi:
Here the Aam Aadmi Party made its legendary debut and came
as a storm, dwarfing a very good show by the BJP, led by the new found leader
Dr. Harshvardhan. The polls made Aap win 28 seats with a vote share of 31%,
while the BJP ended up being the largest party here with 33 seats and a 34%
vote share. The Congress came a distant third here with 25% vote share and only
8 seats. Though the opinion polls are showing a majority for Arvind Kejriwal's
party and giving him most of the seats, I think, with the diminishing Aap's
image among middle class voters, the seats and vote share would go down a
little. The Namo wave is also supposed to show higher impact in the Lok Sabha
elections than the erstwhile Assembly elections.
The final vote and seat share predicted here would be
AAP: 29%, 3
seats
BJP: 35%, 3
seats
Congress 24%: 1 seat
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