Madhya Pradesh
With a recently
conducted assembly polls the pollsters would again get it correct. The
elections held in Nov 2013 didn't throw surprising results. The last minute
entry of Scindia scion could not dent the image of Shivraj Singh Chauhan and
BJP got healthy 165 seats and Congress getting only 58 this time (13 lower than
last time)
Political analysts do
not however give the credit for this to Narendra Modi. This RSS heritage state
sees a competition between the old guard and the new Namo wave out in open.
Very recently, the tiff between Advani and Namo on the Bhopal seat is an example.
Shivraj Singh's popularity and hevay presence of Sangh observers is however
going to help BJP sail through this Lok Sabha elections.
In Madhya Pradesh, which
elects 29 Lok Sabha members, the shift in geographic winning pattern suggests an anti incumbency at a much local constituency level. Hence candidate selection is going to play a crucial role here. However, given the current assemble election trends and holding it to the Lok Sabha, the following could be the expected result.
BJP: 22, Congress: 6, BSP 1
Chhattisgarh
In the recently completed elections, the Congress provided a tough fight to the BJP. In fact, contrary to popular perception, the vote share of Congress increased here to 40.3% while the BJP's decreased to 41%. The BSP here, finished as the third largest party with a 4.2% vote share. The difference Congress and BJP vote share here is the least even thought the seats won by them are 49 and 39 respectively. The same trend would continue to show in the coming Loksabha elections. Out of the 11 seats in the state, the division on seats is going to be in the ratio of the assembly elections.
Hence, the BJP is expected to get 7 seats, the Congress 4 seats with a 42% and 39% vote share.
