Opinion Polls South India Aggregate

The Opinion Polls in the South region is the most fractured. If this were a country then no government wold be possibly formed. The congress led UPA and the NDA are getting 30 seats each, while the AIADMK, the DMK, the Left, the TRS and the YSRCP are getting sizable numbers too.

	TN	AP	Kar	Kerala	Total
NDA	4	14	12		30
UPA		9	12	9	30
AIDMK	20				20
DMK	15				15
YSRC		10			10
TRS		7			7
Left	1	1		11	13
JDS			3		3
AAP			1		1
Others		1			1
	40	42	28	20	130

The overall India picture now clearly emerges with the following arithmetic: 

	North	West	East	South	Total
NDA	75	86	42	30	233
UPA	25	27	35	30	117
AAP	12	2	0	1	15
SP	20				20
BSP	17	1			18
Left			21	13	34
TMC			20		20
JDU			7		7
BJD			13		13
DMK				15	15
YSRC				10	10
JDS				3	3
TRS				7	7
AIDMK				20	20
Others	2		5	1	8

This result is as fractured as it could be. With this, a government formation is not possible. A minority NDA government with 25 parties supported by Jaya and Mamata would be a disaster. A Third front government with Congress support would be even more disastrous. Both are possible though...

The erstwhile pre poll 3rd front in this formation will have close to 140 seats. Even with entire UPA throwing its weight behind, the 272 number looks a distant dream. This can also be a minority government running for a year or at most two years. 

As per this opinion poll, expect another election in 2016.

Opinion Polls - Andhra Pradesh 2014 General Elections

Another fascinating story of the elections 2014, and probably the most, is that of AP. Just by dividing the state in two parts, something the Congress has promised in its 2009 manifesto, led to emergence of two new parties which are going to possibly form two new governments in June. At least that's what the opinion polls for the state assemblies in Telengana and Seemandhra are showing. This means the Congress is going to loose its backyard to its fierce loyalist's son - Jagan Reddy. It seems in the last decade or so, all decisions of the party - whether not agreeing to Telengana separation first post 2004, then not allowing Jagan to be the CM after his father's death and finally the bifurcation itself - everything has proved costly to the Congress party. Even its last CM in power Kiran Reddy has decided to form another party and is fighting hard in some parts of Rayalseema. 

Chandrababu Naidu, on the other hand, is waiting desperately to govern half the state he once presided like a CEO from Hyderabad. Its partner the BJP is all preparing to carry on the partnership for some time as they need the required number of MPs from the state. The BJP is happy to play a second fiddle in Seemandhra and is possibly going to lose whatever support base it has in Telengana too. The TRS would be glad to form the next government in Telengana, with or without the support of Congress. All it wants now is to get the reigns of the newly formed state. The left with its some pockets of influence in Khammam and Nalgonda would want to ally with either the Congress or the TRS in Telengana. In Seemandhra, they would probably need to do a lot of rethink of their strategy regarding consolidating in elections. The expected results would be:

TELENGANA (17):
TRS: 7
Congress: 8
MIM: 1
CPI: 1

SEEMANDHRA (25):
Congress: 0
YSRCP: 10
TDP: 13
BJP: 1
JSAP: 1

Opinion Polls - Tamil Nadu 2014 General Elections

Tamil Nadu is a story of opportunity lost for Jayalalitha. The AIADMK alliance along with the left across opinion polls was getting 33-35 seats out of the 40 of TN + Pondicherry. This party was ended by Mrs Jayalalitha herself by pulling herself out of the alliance. The reasons they say are many. One, Jayalalitha is prone to flaws in self evaluation and typically over estimates her strength mostly due to flattery of close confidantes. Two, in her measurement the Third front stood little chance of forming a government vis-a-vis the NDA under Modi and under pressure from her right wing advisories took the course. But f any one gained from her decision is the wily old man - Karunanidhi. Left all alone with BJP having its own alliance and the Left and Congress deciding to go alone too with full force, the AIADMK was locked in a first time ever 4-5 way contest in most of the constituencies. The Congress, Left, the AAP even though have  a bleak chance of winning any seat, would possibly cut into the major parties vote in heavy doses in their own areas of influence. The NDA with 6 party alliance headed by BJP would definitely be able to convert their high vote share into some seats in the state. But when it comes to seats, the AIADMK and the DMK would split the seats among themselves, but not like how it was being projected. Having ditched the left harmed her in more than one way - now she was no longer the PM candidate of the third front and the the entire opposition from the right to the left was only raising their voice against her government day and night. 

The opinion polls too are now changing their loyalty. From a high of 30 seats, AIADMK seems to have come down to 21-22 in most. The DMK has a chance of increasing its tally from 5(initial estimates) to even 15 seats here. the NDA would get a lot of votes but as per opinion polls is getting 4-6 seats. Basis these estimates, we would like to jump straight to our opinion polls forecast:

AIADMK: 20

DMK: 15

NDA: 4

Congress: 0

AAP:0

Left:1

Opinion Polls - Kerala 2014 general elections

This has been one state that's been a real pollster nightmare. So much so that forget opinion polls, even the exit polls typically has very little sanctity. This is because of the fact that even very small swings of 1% have made one of the two coalitions win or loose and this has been going on for the past 30 years now.

The ruling coalition - UDF faces a stiff anti-incumbency and the opposition LDF is plagued with infighting. That makes the contest even. In the last assembly elections in 2011, the UDF had come to power with some wafer thin margins and the LDF under the stewardship of VS Achhutanandan had very steadfastly assuaged much of the anti-incumbency coming its way. Similarly the Oomen Chandy government has now with deft handling of certain issues made sure that the ruling party's dominance in certain parts would continue. The LDF on the other hand has placed 5 ex-congress men as its candidates in Congress strongholds and also made sure a good representation of Christians - a traditional vote base of Congress here, to dent into a good number of UDF votes. LDF on the other hand lost its key ally, the RSP to UDF and that may impact its results in a couple of seats here.

The BJP has tried its best to increase its vote share to its ever highest, but the factionalism within its ranks is going to cost them very severely. The party is not going to get more than 8% votes here - denting the Congress vote base a little in some constituencies like Trivandrum. The Aap is going to be a strong effect in some seats like Cochin and Trivandrum and is mostly going to impact the Left votes. 

Overall, considering these scenarios we would go by what the latest NDTV opinion polls suggest here (not many channels and polls cover Kerala as much). 

The vote share of LDF is going to increase from 39% to 42% and the UDF is going to reduce from 48% to 45%. As a result, the final seat tally would be:

UPA: 9

Left:11

Opinion Polls - Karnataka General Elections 2014

In the 2008 elections, the BJP got a vote share of 33.86 per cent and won 110 seats, improving upon its earlier tally of 28.33 per cent votes and 79 seats. The Congress was marginally ahead of BJP in terms of vote share with 34.76 per cent — a decline from 35.27 per cent in 2004. JD(S) fell from 20.77 to18.96 per cent. Riding on this assembly win of 2008, the BJP got a 42% vote share in 2009 and 19 of the 28 seats. The Congress won 6 and the JD(S) won 3. Last year, the Congress won a comeback 122 seats, up from 80 in 2008, by adding just 1.6 percentage points to its 2008 vote share. On the other hand, the BJP crashed both in seats (40 from 110 in 2008) and vote share (20.07 from 33.93 percent in 2008). The BJP lost its deposit on 110 seats; the Congress on 23.

As for BSY's Karnataka Jantha Paksha (KJP), the claim that it wrecked the BJP is a myth. Analysts cite its average vote share of 10.82 percent on the 204 of the state's 224 seats it contested to back that claim. But that figure was skewed by shares of 50.76, 49.89, 44.89, 43.21, 39.57 and 32.11 percents that the KJP notched up on the six seats it won. The KJP placed second on 33 assembly seats. But even there BSY's return won't help. Those assembly seats are spread over 13 Lok Sabha seats, of which the BJP had won 10 in 2009. At best it can retain them with BSY's return but even that would be hard given the BJP's overall declining fortunes.

So even if BJP gains the entire KJP vote back in 2014 and gets some additional 3% due to gains in North Karnataka because of Narendra Modi, the vote share is going to be 33%. The JDS here had in the assembly elections increased its vote share to 20% and is expected to retain the same in 2009. The congress is expected to loose 1.6% of the total vote share and finish at 35%. But these vote share skews in the various sub-regions of Karnataka is going to be very different. It is, as usual going to be a 3 way contest between BJP, Congress and JDS in some 11 seats of South and central Karnataka; and a 2 way contest in the 14 seats of North Karnataka.

Opinion Polls 2014:

Of the 14 Seats of North Karnataka, the Modi wave and the coming back of Yedyurappa is going to help BJP the most. Here it is expected to win 9 seats this time and the Congress would get 5.

Of the 11 seats in South and central Karnataka, the Congress would do much better than last time and would get 6 seats and the JDS and BJP would get 3 seats and 2 seats respectively. In the 3 seats of the Urban Bangalore, the fight is going to be quadrangular with AAP also having jumped in the fray this time. The Congress, the BJP, the AAP is going to get 1 each here.

Over all expected tally would be:

NDA: 12

Congress: 11

JDS:3

AAP:1

Opinion Polls 2014 Elections - East Total

The overall picture of East is quite fractured, with neither the UPA or the NDA is able to get close to a majority. And though the BJP does quite well on its own, the Congress seems to be completely thriving on alliances here. 

The final tally for east seems to be:

	Bihar	JKD	WB	Odisha	NES	Total East
NDA	22	10	1	4	5	42
UPA	10	4	3	4	14	35
Left			18		3	21
TMC			20			20
JDU	7					7
BJD				13		13
JVM		1				1
AGP					1	1
SDF					1	1
NPF					1	1
Ind	1					1
	40	15	42	21	25	143

Now including East, the final tally for the three regions combined would be:

	North	West	East	Total
NDA	75	86	42	203
UPA	25	27	35	87
AAP	12	2	0	14
SP	20			20
BSP	17	1	0	18
Left	0	0	21	21
TMC			20	20
JDU			7	7
BJD			13	13
Others	2		5	7

Opinion Poll - Jhakhand 2014 General Elections

The key deciding factor in many seats has been the strength of the alliances formed by the national parties. The BJP had JD(U) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as allies when it put up an impressive performance in 2009. The JD(U) broke 17-year-old ties with BJP in June 2013 opposing Narendra Modi's elevation and JMM has joined hands with the Congress, making the BJP to bank more on the 'Modi wave' to see it through. 

On the other hand, Congress which was reduced to one seat in 2009 General Elections, will be contesting 2014 General Elections in coalition with the JMM and RJD. In 2004, Congress had won 6 seats and JMM had won 4 seats. Furthermore, its other alliance parties RJD and CPI had got two and one seat each. This took the tally to 12.

If one goes by the trend, the BJP is expected to garner 35-40 percent votes in the state if elections are held now. On the other hand, Congress may earn somewhere between 15-20 percent of votes. Shibu Soren's JMM and Babulal Marandi's JVM are expected to get 8 to 7 percent votes. 

So with the BJP getting 37% votes and the Congress + RJD + JMM getting 28% votes, the 14 lok sabha seats would go largely in favor of the BJP.

The final Seat tally would be: 

NDA: 10, UPA: 3, JVM: 1