Gujarat India Opinion Polls - 2014

The 2012 Elections

2012 Assembly elections in Gujarat had been a continuation of a dismal story for Congress. What had begun as a Hindutva laboratory in the 90's, was turned to a Modi laboratory after 2002. while the 2007 elections were won as a referendum for Modi as the chief minster, the 2012 elections were a pitch for his PM post through a carefully crafted slogan around Gujarati Pride. In spite of defections by Keshubhai group, Modi came out to be as successful as ever. From that win onward he started his pitch for candidature as a PM, then galvanized and inspired the large BJP cadres across the country, got the RSS on his side, got a favorable party president at the helm of affairs, sidelined the entire Advani/Vajpayee gang and now has complete control over party and its electoral strategies.

Turnout	71.32%
	First party	Second party
Party	BJP	INC
Last election	117 seats	59 seats
Seats before	117	59
Seats won	116	60
Seat change	1[1]	4
Percentage	47.90%	38.90%

While in 2012, the congress had gained a little in vote share and seat share as well, it fell short of putting up a fight by a large margin.

2014 Prediction

The Aam Aadmi Party is going to play a minor role in Gujarati politics this time, although in the long run this might become the rallying point for all anti Modi forces. In these ensuing elections, AAP is predicted to do well in urban centers only and there dent the BJP as well as Congress vote by some % points. While in some seats they may get >10% votes, overall the vote share would be around 4% in the state, not giving them any seat. The BJP would continue to get the lions share of vote share - 45% and the Congress would again become a distant number 2 at 37% vote share.

As a result, this would be a bi-polar contest once again, heavily in favor of BJP. The following would be the seat prediction of the 26 seats in the state:

BJP 22, Congress 4

 

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MP & Chhattisgarh - India Opinion Polls 2014

Madhya Pradesh

With a recently conducted assembly polls the pollsters would again get it correct. The elections held in Nov 2013 didn't throw surprising results. The last minute entry of Scindia scion could not dent the image of Shivraj Singh Chauhan and BJP got healthy 165 seats and Congress getting only 58 this time (13 lower than last time)

Political analysts do not however give the credit for this to Narendra Modi. This RSS heritage state sees a competition between the old guard and the new Namo wave out in open. Very recently, the tiff between Advani and Namo on the Bhopal seat is an example. Shivraj Singh's popularity and hevay presence of Sangh observers is however going to help BJP sail through this Lok Sabha elections.

In Madhya Pradesh, which elects 29 Lok Sabha members, the shift in geographic winning pattern suggests an anti incumbency at a much local constituency level. Hence candidate selection is going to play a crucial role here. However, given the current assemble election trends and holding it to the Lok Sabha, the following could be the expected result.

BJP: 22, Congress: 6, BSP 1

Chhattisgarh  

In the recently completed elections, the Congress provided a tough fight to the BJP. In fact, contrary to popular perception, the vote share of Congress increased here to 40.3% while the BJP's decreased to 41%. The BSP here, finished as the third largest party with a 4.2% vote share. The difference Congress and BJP vote share here is the least even thought the seats won by them are 49 and 39 respectively. The same trend would continue to show in the coming Loksabha elections. Out of the 11 seats in the state, the division on seats is going to be in the ratio of the assembly elections. 

Hence, the BJP is expected to get 7 seats, the Congress 4 seats with a 42% and 39% vote share.

India Opinion Polls 2014 - North India FINAL

The NaMo magic seems to have worked in North India and NDA seems to have won a simple majority here. Out of the 151 seats in North the BJP sits on a razor thin majority with 75 seats. And we stick our neck out to say that. A large number of its seats - 55 out of these 76 come from 2 states here i.e. UP and Rajasthan. It doesn't seem to do so well in Punjab, coming second to Congress combine here.

The Congress on the other hand, does good only in Punjab and hills and loses badly in Haryana, Rajasthan and UP. The AAP seems to win a surprise 12 seats here. These seem to be mostly coming from NCR region (7). It doesnt open its account in Rajasthan, J&K and Uttarakhand.

The SP and the BSP are the other 2 large parties coming out of the region. The SP seems to win 20 seats, the BSP gets 17 only.

The FINAL TALLY for North India would be:

	Punjab	Haryana	Hills	UP	Rajasthan	Delhi
NDA	5	5	7	34	21	3	75
UPA	6	2	6	7	3	1	25
AAP	3	3	1	2		3	12
SP				20			20
BSP				17			17
Others			1		1		2
	14	10	15	80	25	7	151

India Opinion Polls 2014 - Delhi & Rajasthan

One of the easiest predictions would be for the states where elections were held just a few months ago, i.e. in November 2013. Here the Opinion Polls would not dare go too wrong considering the biggest opinion polls have been held very recently. Lets look at the results a little closely then. It’s safe to say then that the Opinion Polls are correct.

Rajasthan

Here the BJP on the back of a severe NaMo wave completely swept the elections. Seat after seat one could feel the impact of the opposition party's PM candidate. The Congress lost 75 seats from the previous term and won only 21. The winter heat was felt by all other parties too. While the BSP lost 3 seats, down from 6; the Communists who claimed to be leading a third front, won none, down from a previous 3. The BJP here got a massive 46% of votes and 162 seats, while the Congress came a distant second at 34%.

If we go by the ratio of these seats then the BJP would win 80% of the seats here, while the Congress would get only 3

  

Delhi:

Here the Aam Aadmi Party made its legendary debut and came as a storm, dwarfing a very good show by the BJP, led by the new found leader Dr. Harshvardhan. The polls made Aap win 28 seats with a vote share of 31%, while the BJP ended up being the largest party here with 33 seats and a 34% vote share. The Congress came a distant third here with 25% vote share and only 8 seats. Though the opinion polls are showing a majority for Arvind Kejriwal's party and giving him most of the seats, I think, with the diminishing Aap's image among middle class voters, the seats and vote share would go down a little. The Namo wave is also supposed to show higher impact in the Lok Sabha elections than the erstwhile Assembly elections.

The final vote and seat share predicted here would be

AAP: 29%,              3 seats

BJP: 35%,              3 seats

Congress 24%:    1 seat