India Opinion Polls 2014 - Haryana

Though the Congress won 9 out of the 10 seats in this state in 2009, its vote share had slid by 0.6%, from 42.1% to 41.5%. Despite INLDs tie up with the BJP, the agrarian based party could not win a single seat here. Its vote percentage had reduced from 22.5% to 15.7%, and that was huge slide down. BJP too had failed to retain its only seat here from Sonipat with its vote share reducing by 5%, from 17.2% to 12.1%. This largely was ascribed to the corruption and brazenness of the Chautala government. The BSP, as like in other North Indian states had increased its share from 4% to 15% - a huge increase! Since the Lok sabha elections were held almost simultaneously with Vidhan Sabha, we would not analyse the Vidhan Sabha vote share here.

In 2014, the Congress is expected to reverse its electoral gains, because of the same reasons as INLD earlier in 2009. The highhandedness and the corruption allegations, especially the ones around Vadhra, are pointing to a huge diminishing of the congress vote base here. The personal capabilities of a few MPs like Naveen Jindal is going to deliver whatever few seats it can.

This reversal in Congress fortune would be mainly the gain of Aam Aadmi Party here. This is one state that not only geographically but politically too resounds with the hinterlands of Delhi, the fledgling party has made serious inroads. Yogendra Yadav's leadership along with Kejriwal's home state charisma is definitely going to make a huge dent in the Congress+INLD+BSP vote base. As per many independent pollsters AAP is going to get appx 20-25% votes here.

The BJP because of Hindu upper caste/middle class vote consolidation (Namo factor) is going to make a serious rebound.  Added on to this, there will be the alliance with Haryana Janhit Congress tie up (expected to get a large chunk of Bishnoi votes) that's going to give this alliance a serious chance to become the largest entity in votes as well as seats.

The gains of these two parties would be a serious loss for the rest - INLD and the BSP, and the final vote share tally is likely to be:

Congress: 25%

AAP: 23%

BJP+HJC: 28%

INLD: 10%

BSP: 4%

And the final seat share is going to be:

Congress 2, BJP+ 5, AAP, 3