The 2012 Elections
2012 Assembly elections in Gujarat had been a continuation of a dismal story for Congress. What had begun as a Hindutva laboratory in the 90's, was turned to a Modi laboratory after 2002. while the 2007 elections were won as a referendum for Modi as the chief minster, the 2012 elections were a pitch for his PM post through a carefully crafted slogan around Gujarati Pride. In spite of defections by Keshubhai group, Modi came out to be as successful as ever. From that win onward he started his pitch for candidature as a PM, then galvanized and inspired the large BJP cadres across the country, got the RSS on his side, got a favorable party president at the helm of affairs, sidelined the entire Advani/Vajpayee gang and now has complete control over party and its electoral strategies.
| Turnout | 71.32% | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| First party | Second party | ||
 |  | ||
| Party | BJP | INC | |
| Last election | 117 seats | 59 seats | |
| Seats before | 117 | 59 | |
| Seats won | 116 | 60 | |
| Seat change |  1[1] |  4 | |
| Percentage | 47.90% | 38.90% | |
While in 2012, the congress had gained a little in vote share and seat share as well, it fell short of putting up a fight by a large margin.
2014 Prediction
The Aam Aadmi Party is going to play a minor role in Gujarati politics this time, although in the long run this might become the rallying point for all anti Modi forces. In these ensuing elections, AAP is predicted to do well in urban centers only and there dent the BJP as well as Congress vote by some % points. While in some seats they may get >10% votes, overall the vote share would be around 4% in the state, not giving them any seat. The BJP would continue to get the lions share of vote share - 45% and the Congress would again become a distant number 2 at 37% vote share.
As a result, this would be a bi-polar contest once again, heavily in favor of BJP. The following would be the seat prediction of the 26 seats in the state:
BJP 22, Congress 4
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