THE
HILL STATES of North India
The
Northern Boundary of India, surrounded by neighboring countries like Pakistan
and China in north and Nepal in the east, comprises of the states of J&K,
Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. These three total up to 6+5+4 seats
respectively.
Given
Narendra Modi's nationalistic appeal and considering these comprise of
substantial, Minority, dalit and tribal populations, both Congress and BJP will
try their utmost best to capture most of these 15 seats. Also, considering all
these three are currently being ruled by Congress and its allies, the battle of
Delhi has to go through the tenuous paths of these beautiful hills here.
J&K
In
the 2009 General Elections, Congress + NC in a coalition had earned 43.8%
votes here, followed by PDP at 20% and BJP at 18.6% votes. In terms of seats,
the Congress got 2 seats of the Jammu region, defeating BJP in both and NC got
3 out of 4 seats of the Kashmir Valley. This time around, Modi wave is going to
sweep the Jammu region and we can safely predict both seats here going to BJP.
In the Kashmir valley however, NC is probably going to hold on to the erstwhile
vote share and again do marginally better than PDP in most seats. If the NC and
Congress coalition holds on the Congress would get one seat, the NC would get 2
and PDP 1 in the valley.
Himachal
Pradesh
The
battle here is going to change dramatically from 2 cornered contest to 3
cornered with the rise of AAP. The high and large number of corruption cases in
both the national parties has dented the image of both national parties here,
hence making this a potent ground for the fledgling AAP. The Kangra BJP MP (who
was an anti graft crusader) has joined AAP and is going to definitely make the
contest there interesting.
In
the 2009 elections, the Congress here had got 45.6% and the BJP 49.6% votes. By
2012 elections, the combined vote share dropped to 81.3% with Congress losing
3%, ending up at 42.8% and BJP losing a humongous 11% (at 38.6%) here owing to
large corruption cases of the ruling govt. So while in 2009, BJP here won 3 out
of the 4 seats, the situation in 204 would not be as comfortable. While the
Namo wave would increase BJP vote share from 36.6% to 42%, The congress vote
share is going to steeply fall from 42.8% to 35%. The AAP coming up as a major
force is going to win 15% vote share and definitely one seat (most probably
Kangra).
The
final tally most likely would be Congress 1, BJP 2 and AAP 1.
Uttarakhand
This
state has been a congress bastion for a long time and in 2009 gave congress all
its 5 lok sabha seats with 43.1% votes followed by BJP at 33.8% votes. In 2012
assembly elections however, the vote % of congress here fell down to 33.8% only
a shade better than BJP at 33.1%. The BSP here has been a strong force with
12-15% votes, acting as an influence in 3 out of 5 seats in the plains.
The
rise of AAP here is going to benefit the BJP the most. The 14% votes that the
new party is going to gain is mostly going to come from the Congress and the
BSP. The BJP is expected to hold on to the previous share or lose at max only a
% or two. The final vote share is mostly going to be
Congress
30%, BJP 32%, BSP 8%, AAP 14%
If
the Congress does a pre poll seat sharing with BSP (which is a probability) the
following would be the final tally:
Congress
2, BJP 3
Overall
of the 15 seats in the North India Hill states, the following would be the
tally:
UPA:
6
NDA:
7
PDP:
1
AAP:
1
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