Opinion Polls 2014 Elections - East Total

The overall picture of East is quite fractured, with neither the UPA or the NDA is able to get close to a majority. And though the BJP does quite well on its own, the Congress seems to be completely thriving on alliances here. 

The final tally for east seems to be:

	Bihar	JKD	WB	Odisha	NES	Total East
NDA	22	10	1	4	5	42
UPA	10	4	3	4	14	35
Left			18		3	21
TMC			20			20
JDU	7					7
BJD				13		13
JVM		1				1
AGP					1	1
SDF					1	1
NPF					1	1
Ind	1					1
	40	15	42	21	25	143

Now including East, the final tally for the three regions combined would be:

	North	West	East	Total
NDA	75	86	42	203
UPA	25	27	35	87
AAP	12	2	0	14
SP	20			20
BSP	17	1	0	18
Left	0	0	21	21
TMC			20	20
JDU			7	7
BJD			13	13
Others	2		5	7

Opinion Poll - Jhakhand 2014 General Elections

The key deciding factor in many seats has been the strength of the alliances formed by the national parties. The BJP had JD(U) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as allies when it put up an impressive performance in 2009. The JD(U) broke 17-year-old ties with BJP in June 2013 opposing Narendra Modi's elevation and JMM has joined hands with the Congress, making the BJP to bank more on the 'Modi wave' to see it through. 

On the other hand, Congress which was reduced to one seat in 2009 General Elections, will be contesting 2014 General Elections in coalition with the JMM and RJD. In 2004, Congress had won 6 seats and JMM had won 4 seats. Furthermore, its other alliance parties RJD and CPI had got two and one seat each. This took the tally to 12.

If one goes by the trend, the BJP is expected to garner 35-40 percent votes in the state if elections are held now. On the other hand, Congress may earn somewhere between 15-20 percent of votes. Shibu Soren's JMM and Babulal Marandi's JVM are expected to get 8 to 7 percent votes. 

So with the BJP getting 37% votes and the Congress + RJD + JMM getting 28% votes, the 14 lok sabha seats would go largely in favor of the BJP.

The final Seat tally would be: 

NDA: 10, UPA: 3, JVM: 1

Opinion polls - Bihar 2014 General Elections

The Bihar Elections are another unfolding of a saga. A founder member of the NDA, the JDU, after a 17 year old tie up and a 12 year old government together decided to severe ties. The Namo wave sees its maximum impact here in the urban areas and BJP alone would have been a strong contender by itself for at least 50% of the 32 seats that were jointly won by the front in 2009. But the story didn't stop there. Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP, a staunch ally of the RJD and the Congress, decided to part ways and move towards the NDA instead. The Congress Party too settled with the alliance along with RJD, only with a good share of seats on its side. Nitish Kumar, having left with no ally in the state moved towards the third front and now has a tie up with CPI, which is fighting in 2 seats as part of that alliance...

The story doesn't end here too. Just one month before the General Elections, half a dozen MLAs of the RJD switched sides and joined JDU... the lone MLA of the LJP too joined JDU... but then 4 Rajya Sabha MPs and prominent figures of the JDU either quit the party or unabashedly joined the BJP. Even one of Nitish Kumar's ministers quit and joined the Aam Aadmi Party here and is posing a stiff challenge in a couple of seats. 

While one can say, the Split in NDA would benefit the UPA here, also that the split in the secular vote is going to help the consolidated upper caste vote in favor of NDA is equally true. With ever increasing party hopping and poll rhetoric, the elections here are not just a triangular contest, but a funny circus to watch. It would be extremely difficult to analyse any trend here, apart from the fact that the Urban 12% voters of the state are definitely on the side of Narendra Modi. With that in mind and the combining all the opinion polls and correcting those, we come to the conclusion that the final seat tally would be:

NDA: 22
UPA: 10
JDU: 7
Ind and others: 1

Opinion Polls - Odisha 2014 General Elections

These elections of 2014 would possibly test the waters of the Naveen Patnaik led BJD government in Orissa. The fight is triangular, but the BJP's presence is strong only in about 8 consituencies, of which it should convert a large number.

In the 2009 elections the BJD won hands down with 39% votes and 15 out of the 21 seats (1 of this was with CPI, its ally then). The Congress had won the remaining 6 seats with 25% vote share and the BJP drawing a blank with 15% votes. This time, the BJP is bound to gain around 10% vote share and go up to 25%, with the Congress possibly losing 5% and the BJD its 5%. 

Thus the final vote share tally should be: 

BJD: 34%, INC: 24%, BJP: 25%. 

This would surprisingly make the BJP the second largest party in Odisha for the first time in electoral history. The triangular contest in these seats however, would still lead to a BJD dominance. The Lok Sabha seats predicted for the elections are:

BJD: 13, BJP: 4, Congress: 4

Opinion Polls - West Bengal 2014 Elections

The biggest of the electoral battles is being fought in the eastern state of West Bengal and this time it is made interesting by not only the TMC-CPIM rivalry, but also the entry of cine stars ranging from Bappi Lahiri to Babul Supriyo to Sandhya Rai and Deb. This time in most of the constituencies the contest is 3 ways and in some, it is four ways too. It is after a long long time that Bengal is seeing so many politcal parties vying for the mainstream space.

Principally the CPIM and the Left, after the drubbing in 2011 assembly elections is going through a long phase of recovery. The voters they have lost between 2009 to 2011 are yet to come back... on top of that, the entry of BJP, the Modi wave and some polarization has led to further erosion in its vote base particularly in rural and Muslim dominated areas. While there is expected to be a 5- 15% of votes erosion compared to last election across the constituencies across the state owing to loss of party organisation and demoralized voters and leaders, the good news comes surprisingly from its arch political rival - the BJP! Because of the deep polarization in many constituencies, and celebrity candidates, the right wing Hindu vote (the staunchest of Left adversaries) might move towards the BJP from TMC. Also because of the earlier overtures of Modi to Mamata, a section of Muslim votes might move to Left also. In few pockets the Musim voters might chose a more radical Muslim party too as an effect, which will again dent the TMC votes. So in spite of the 8% vote swing against, Left may convert many a possible victories to defeats.

The TMC on the other hand is hoping to survive on its organisational strength. The recently concluded panchayat elections gave her a humongous 51% of votes. Even if we remove the cases of alleged rigging and other influences, this would be at least 45%, a good 8-10% lead over the left. However, in its attempt to curb the Left, and excesses committed, the TMC has seriously ignored the urban constituencies and led to the rapid rise of the BJP here. Though confident of the rural votes in South, Central and Western Bengal, the contest is really interesting in Kolkata and surrounding areas - in around 10 constituencies. Here if the Left manages to hold on to 90% of their traditional voters, the ground beneath Mamata's feet would start slipping.

The INC is hoping to give its best in the 4-5 seats of Malda, Murshidabad districts. Its also expecting to do well in the North Bengal constituencies. The main contender here would be the Left again. The BJP is making good inroads into urban West Bengal and is expected to at least double its vote share and even fare better than the INC in the state. Even if the party doesn't win any seats, this itself would be a big achievement for the saffron party.

2014 Predictions
The expected party wise vote share would be:

Vote Share	TMC	Left	INC	BJP	Others
2009	31%	43%	13%	6%	6%
2011	39%	41%	9%	4%	7%
2014 Pred.	36%	36%	14%	12%	2%

The Final Seat Share would be: 
TMC: 20
Left:18
INC: 3
BJP: 1


   

Opinion Poll - North East 2014

ASSAM

2009 result: The Congress  had a strong performance in 2009 Loksabha elections with 7 seats and the BJP gaining 4 there. The AIUDF had gained one seat and the AGP drew a blank. The Party wise vote share was following. Congress: 34.9%, BJP : 16.2%, AUDF: 16.1%, AGP: 14.6%, BOPF: 5.4%

2011 Assembly Elections:

The congress gained further in here with 78 out of 126 seats and BJP and AGP got a shocker with 5 and 10 seats respectively.

The Indian National Congress, which had won 7 seats in 2009, is confident of sweeping the elections this year too. The current state government is led by the Congress in coalition with the All India United democratic Front (AIUDF). The average of opinion polls predicts that Congress will win at least 8 seats with BJP gaining the remaining 3 and AUDF and AGP 2 and 1 each. With Modi wave, which would result in a 3% increase in vote share, is having limited impact beyond some urban constituencies, the opinion polls would be largely correct. However, the polls are largely ignoring the impact each of the smaller regional parties have in some pockets and the large erosion of BJP base owing to Gogoi’s high ‘development’ imagery in the state. Basis this, the following is the seat tally predicted for the elections in 2014

Congress : 8, BJP: 3, AUDF: 2, AGP:1

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SIKKIM

The Sikkim democratic front’s strong showing election after election is going to continue. In 2004 the party had won 69% votes and in 2009 63% votes. The trend is going to continue and SDF would pick up the lone seat in the state. Most likely this is going to side with a  third front government.

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MANIPUR

The last general election for the two seats was held in the state in 2009. Candidates of the Indian National Congress (INC) triumphed in both the Parliamentary constituencies. Dr Th Meinya retained the Inner seat defeating his nearest rival Dr M Nara of CPI and Thangso Baite won the Outer Parliamentary seat from Mani Charenamei of the People’s Democratic Alliance in the 15th Lok Sabha polls. (NNN). In the recently concluded assembly elections, the Congress won 42 of the 60 seats. So its expected to win both the lok sabha constituencies. While the Outer Manipur seat is surely to go with the Congress, in the Inner Manipur seat, interestingly the last two time CPI‘s runner up Dr. Nara is a common candidate of 11 parties here. All India Forward Block, BSP, CPI, CPI (M), JD (U), JD (S), NCP, Shiv Sena, RSP, and People’s Democratic Alliance have fielded a strong candidate and thus has a strong chance to win.

So here we would stick our neck out and predict the following for the 2 lok sabha seats:

INC: 1, CPI: 1

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MIZORAM

In 2009, the Congress won the lone lok sabha seat and in 2013 November assembly elections, swept the polls with 32 out of 40 seats. The Congress is expected to win the lok sabha seat this time too.

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NAGALAND

The Naga People’s Front which has been winning the elections here for the lone lok Sabha seat with huge margins is going to win again this time. The Margins, as like in Mizoram are too high to cover up for any wave.

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MEGHALAYA

This state has two lok sabha seats – Shillong and Tura. While the SHillong seat has been a stronghold of the Congress and is expected to win it again, the contest in Tura seat would be one of prestige this time, with PA Sangma, the former CM and lok sabha speaker is going to run as a NPP candidate here. In the recently concluded 2013 assembly elections, the Congress won 29 out of 60 seats and formed the government here. The impact of that would definitely be seen this time around and Congress is expected to win in both the seats.

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ARUNACHAL PRADESH

While both the seats went to Congress here in 2009, the Arunachal West constituency was won on a very small margin of 1300 votes. This one would definitely go to the BJP this time, which won it in 2004 too. The Arunachal East constituency however, would see a tough contest between the two national parties. With the Congress government finishing its 5 year term here, anti-incumbency plus Namo effect would have an impact and BJP would win here too.

TRIPURA

This state can be called the CPIM’s strangest two bastions in the country. Here the Manik Sarkar run government stormed back to power with 49 out of 60 seats.  The CPI its partner picked up one and the weakened Congress finished with just 10 seats. If the CPIM is confident of winning anywhere in the country, it’s here.

TOTAL NORTH EAST

Party	Assam	AP	Mizoram	Meghalaya	Manipur	Tripura	Sikkim	Naga	TOTAL
UPA	10		1	2	1				14
NDA	3	2							5
AGP	1								1
SDF							1		1
Left					1	2			3
NPF								1	1
	14	2	1	2	2	2	1	1	25

Western India - Final Opinion Poll 2014

This is the region where the NDA seems to gain the maximum due to NaMo wave. The Congress seems to lose the maximum here - corruption, inflation and reduced rate of development seems to occupy the voters mindspace. The AAP shows some signs of emergence thought it is minor compared to its showing in North India. 'Others' as factor play an insignificant roles - particularly the left seems to get decimated even in its limited sphere of influences in Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. 

Over all the picture is an all smiles one for Narendra Modi and Rajnath Singh!

So in the North and West of the country, where the BJP and the NDA is expected to do well, the alliance is doing really well. Overall, in the 267 seats of these states, the NDA gets a lions share of 161 seats. The UPA is decimated to 52 seats here and the AAP makes its presence felt in the urban belts with 14 seats. 

	North	West	Total
NDA	75	86	161
UPA	25	27	52
AAP	12	2	14
SP	20		20
BSP	17	1	18
Others	2		2
	151	116	267