India Opinion Polls 2014 - Punjab

Electoral politics of the state historically has been a clear bipolar contest between Congress (and whoever allies with it) vs. Akali + BJP. However, in the last 2 decades new shifts have begun to take place here. 

Akalis: Parliamentary and assembly elections since 1996 have continued to reflect a shift in the electoral politics of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) - politico-economic issues have replaced ethno-religious ones. Also discernible is the shift from an anti-centre stand to cooperative federalism and from a politics of confrontation to peace and Hindu-Sikh unity. However, it needs to adopt a new social profile moving beyond its image as a party of jat Sikhs and khatris. 

Peoples Party: Another big shift in the politics has been the emergence of PPP + Left wanting to lead a combination of dalits and marginalized in Assembly Elections 2012. Though the combination could not win any seat they managed to get 6-7% votes. And then the very recent emergence of AAP, its strong anti corruption campaign, the massive recent electoral victory in Delhi and likely fielding of big candidates like Phoolka, Rabbi Shergill etc will definitely be  big factor too. 

All these shifts are bound to cause a dent in the erstwhile congress pockets in the state. The shifts are not massive and sudden though... they are slow and certain and will continue to be so. In the years post 2014 elections, the right and left in the state would be more clearly defined and will have their territories well marked. For instance, the marginalized farmers are surely to move from Akali to PPP/AAP, while the young urban middle class voter might shift more and more towards the BJP/Akali. While we will be watching these developments closely, lets first look at a drabber analysis of predicting how May 2014 would turn out to be.  

ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC

In 2007 Assembly the Akali + BJP, came to power with 45.5% votes and the Congress had got 40.9%. The left that had tied up with Congress had 5.6% votes, and the BSP 4%. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Manmohan Singh factor played a huge role to increase the Congress vote share fighting alone to 45.2%. With the Left moving away from Congress, their vote share dwindled to a mere 0.5%. The Akali+BJP held on to their share at 44% and the BSP increased theirs to 5.8%. In the 2009 lok sabha elections, thus in spite of no coalition support, the Congress managed to get 8 seats and the Akali+BJP combine 5.

In the 2012 elections, despite the Akali's rising unpopularity (anti incumbency), the Congress could not cash in and lost the elections. This was due to, a) MSM government's unpopularity was at its peak, owing to CWG/2G/Coal etc. b) no strong tie up with either the left or the BSP. As a result, the Akali+BJP vote share slipped down by 3.5% to 42%, the Congress vote share declined too by 4%. Interestingly, the BSP also lost a percentage. All this was due to the emergence of a third force called the PPP+Left combination. This was made out of some left wing breakaway groups from the Akali Dal with the support of CPI and CPM industrial worker unions. The combine didn't win a single seat but got around 6-7% votes making a huge dent in the Congress vote. 

2014 LOKSABHA

The third force of 2012 will be reduced to an ally of first force in 2014. Most probably the PPP is going to tie up with Congress in 2014, or else they will be swept off by Namo and Kejri waves from the right and the left. Seat sharing with this spent third force would be beneficial for Congress as well. Narendra Modi would be extremely popular in the urban vote bases of Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Amritsar, not just among the traditional vote base of Hindu Khatris and Baniyas but wealthy Sikhs too. And Most importantly, the Aam Aadmi politics is going to sweep across all castes and classes. It is going to take away the entire urban middle class left leaning votes as well as draw huge support from the urban 'Jhugggis'. Thus, while in Urban it would be a great contest between the BJP and the AAP, Rural Punjab would see a contest between Congress and the Akalis.  

Our Prediction for 14 Seats (including Chandigarh). 

The Aam Aadmi Party will get 17% of votes, especially after  Phoolka (crusader of 1984 riots) is being declared as candidate. The NaMo wave will definitely help BJP in the urban areas of Jalandhar, Ludhiana etc. to hold on to its votes, the Akalis will face severe anti incumbency in the vast hinterlands. The combine vote share will decrease by 4%, mostly in the Rural, to 38%. The Congress is going to loose heavily and go down to 35% vote share - their lowest ever in Punjab. But along with their combination with PPP the combine can get (35+2.5) 37.5% votes - A marginal edge over Akali+BJP in rural. The BSP fighting alone, without any ally would be reduced to 3% vote share. As has been seen in the Delhi elections, the largest proportional dent AAP makes is in the dalit base of BSP. 

With these vote shares predicted, we see the following tally to emerge:

Akali + BJP    5

Congress       5

PPP               1

AAP               3

For the first time in history, Punjab would witness a tri-cornered contest. All three would look to consolidate their bases as that't the only way to secure more and more seats in the first past the post system.